Climate change in the
Alps
may not be all bad.
For many Alpine ski resorts, the prospect of sparse snowfall in a warming world
could be a chance to spice up their selling points and come up with new,
creative ways to entice tourists.
Think of it as a mountain makeover with an educational edge. Experts say the
challenge is finding new ways for regions that now rely heavily on ski tourism
to survive without the white stuff — in part by doing more to attract people
to the peaks year-round. "The reality is that skiing is not going to be a
reliable source of income for many areas," said Martin Price, director of
the Centre for Mountain Studies at
Perth
College
in
Britain
. "Especially at the lower altitudes, it's definitely not an industry I
would invest in," he said.
Tourism activities in the
Alps
generate about $71 billion in annual turnover and provide up to 12 percent of
all jobs in the region, according to a recent report by the Paris-based
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The report, released late
last year, said recent warming in the Alps has been roughly three times the
global average and that climate model projections show even greater changes in
the coming decades, with less snow at low altitudes, receding glaciers and
melting permafrost higher up. The findings were featured during a recent
conference in
Innsbruck
on the future of the
Alps
.
For weather-weary ski resort operators, there's currently the option of using
man-made snow on the slopes, a practice that gained ground in
Europe
in the 1980s. But while it helps extend ski seasons and maintain slopes, it
requires large amounts of water, costs a lot and doesn't work well in warmer
conditions.
Robert Steiger of the
University
of
Innsbruck
's
Institute
of
Geography
says snowmaking is a suitable strategy for now, but likely will have to be used
more intensively in years to come. That could become very expensive, especially
for smaller resorts.
In
Austria
, $181.5 million was invested in snowmaking equipment for the 2007-08 winter
season alone, the Chamber of Commerce said. For next year, that figure is
expected to increase to $427.8 million. If needed, nearly 60 percent of
Austria
's slopes can be covered in artificial snow. In
Switzerland
, covering a half-mile of slope with man-made snow requires an investment of
roughly $857,730, according to Hans Elsasser, professor of geography at the
University
of
Zurich
.
Steiger says it's time to consider whether that cash could be better spent
elsewhere. "The problem right now is that ideas are lacking about how to
motivate more people to come up the mountains in the summer," he said.
Austria
's cable car industry could be particularly hard-hit. The cars, which hoist
skiers, snowboarders and sightseers to mountain summits, now make 93 percent of
their total turnover in winter. "From a purely economic perspective, in the
medium term there is no alternative to winter sports from our point of
view," said Erik Wolf, CEO of the Professional Association of Austrian
Cable Cars. Although more people vacation in
Austria
in summer — 16 million did last year — winter is a big draw. Last year's
season brought in 14 million people, and most of them hit the slopes, say
tourism officials.
Among the suggested alternatives: promoting medical stays in the mountains — a
practice that was common in centuries past.
Wolfgang Schobersberger of the UMIT-Institute for Leisure, Travel and Alpine
Medicine in Hall, Tyrol, thinks the
Alps
could provide much-needed relief for people prone to allergies and similar
ailments. "Roughly calculated, that amounts to about 100 million Europeans
who could have guest potential," Schobersberger said, adding that the
mountains also could become a refuge for healthy people seeking to escape
sizzling summers. But Schobersberger acknowledged it will take long-term
strategies — not just ideas — to be successful. "The problem is that
right now, tourism is still thinking about tomorrow, not the day after
tomorrow," he said.
Regula Imhof, vice secretary general in the permanent secretariat of the Alpine
Convention, an international agreement on the protection and sustainable
development of the region, concedes some are reluctant to look beyond the
traditional skiing industry for ways to create a sustainable future for the
Alps. "Some people will hold on until it's just not possible anymore,"
Imhof said.
Even so, the days of winter tourism aren't over. Skiing will simply become more
concentrated in certain areas, said Shardul Agrawala, principal economist on
climate change at the OECD and editor of the organization's recent
Alps
report. And in coming years, not all corners of the
Alps
will be affected in the same way, Elsasser added. Above around 8,200 feet, it
may even snow more than it does now, he said, though that would also increase
the avalanche risk. "One has to maybe think of climate change as less of a
threat for tourism but as a challenge. Panic is uncalled for," Elsasser
said, adding more should be done to inform tourists of their impact on climate
change.
He and Price point to initiatives such as "Keep Winter Cool," a
U.S.
partnership of the Natural Resources Defense Council and the National Ski Areas
Association aimed at raising visibility and public understanding of global
warming and highlighting options to tackle it. "We have to emphasize that
this is not a one-way street but that tourism also makes a major contribution to
climate change, in particular through tourism traffic," Elsasser said.
Warming isn't the only worry. Experts also warn that the future of tourism in
the Alps could be affected by competition from corners of the Balkans and the
Caucasus, and they say
Europe
's aging population will ski less. So far, they say, studies suggest summer
alternatives alone cannot outweigh winter losses, and the Alps will have to
compete with places like
Scotland
or
Scandinavia
for offseason visitors.
Climate change also risks bedeviling summer tourism by melting glaciers, ice
caves and the few remaining venues for summertime skiing, the OECD says. The
trick, Price says, may be to identify a unique selling point — preferably
something that will lure people year-round. "Lots of tourists like to eat
local produce," he said. And warmer conditions might prolong the Alpine
growing season, perhaps enough to grow more food at higher elevations than in
years past, provided there's enough water. "Climate change isn't all
bad," he said.